Excess Deaths and Excess Losses
By Thomas D. Herzfeld
As of 10/1/2005 New Orleans had lost 972 people to Katrina's wrath. This will probably be the final death toll unless the search parties find more people drowned in their attics or nursing homes. If we include the deaths in Mississippi, the total comes to almost 1,200. Katrina's nearest competitor in the last 70 years, hurricane Camille in 1969, killed only (!) 256, which is in turn about 5 - 6 times the next competitor. Katrina may have been much worse than any hurricane since 1915, so let's assume for the moment that had the levees not failed, Katrina would have killed 211 people in New Orleans, the same number as it did in Mississippi. The additional 761 deaths beyond that baseline can be considered "excess" in that they resulted from the flooding after the levees failed, rather than directly from the hurricane itself.
I consider those deaths to be the responsibility of the Administration, which has consistently refused to fund levee construction adequately. It's scary - Louisiana went for Bush in 2004. If this is how this famously parochial Administration takes care of its own, what can we expect for the "blue" states? Mr. Bush seems to care more about the Iraqi on the street than someone in the Ninth Ward. Consider also the irony that a soldier returning from Iraq to New Orleans may find his or her family scattered about the Nation, if he can find them at all. They protect our families, but we have failed to protect theirs.
Enough of the blood, let's look at the cash. Damage estimates range as high as $250 billion, a figure that does not reflect lost productivity, increased energy costs and higher insurance premiums. The next competitor, hurricane Andrew in 1992, caused approximately $40 billion in losses (current dollars). This total loss is approximately the amount of Katrina's insured losses.
Think of the leverage - for a few tens of millions of dollars we could have avoided some $200 billion in losses, untold excess suffering, and the first destruction of a major US city in a century.
Look around you, at your rivers, your seismic faults, your tornado-spawning plains. Maybe you are prepared for whatever your local disaster might be. Is the Government?
Who's next?
As of 10/1/2005 New Orleans had lost 972 people to Katrina's wrath. This will probably be the final death toll unless the search parties find more people drowned in their attics or nursing homes. If we include the deaths in Mississippi, the total comes to almost 1,200. Katrina's nearest competitor in the last 70 years, hurricane Camille in 1969, killed only (!) 256, which is in turn about 5 - 6 times the next competitor. Katrina may have been much worse than any hurricane since 1915, so let's assume for the moment that had the levees not failed, Katrina would have killed 211 people in New Orleans, the same number as it did in Mississippi. The additional 761 deaths beyond that baseline can be considered "excess" in that they resulted from the flooding after the levees failed, rather than directly from the hurricane itself.
I consider those deaths to be the responsibility of the Administration, which has consistently refused to fund levee construction adequately. It's scary - Louisiana went for Bush in 2004. If this is how this famously parochial Administration takes care of its own, what can we expect for the "blue" states? Mr. Bush seems to care more about the Iraqi on the street than someone in the Ninth Ward. Consider also the irony that a soldier returning from Iraq to New Orleans may find his or her family scattered about the Nation, if he can find them at all. They protect our families, but we have failed to protect theirs.
Enough of the blood, let's look at the cash. Damage estimates range as high as $250 billion, a figure that does not reflect lost productivity, increased energy costs and higher insurance premiums. The next competitor, hurricane Andrew in 1992, caused approximately $40 billion in losses (current dollars). This total loss is approximately the amount of Katrina's insured losses.
Think of the leverage - for a few tens of millions of dollars we could have avoided some $200 billion in losses, untold excess suffering, and the first destruction of a major US city in a century.
Look around you, at your rivers, your seismic faults, your tornado-spawning plains. Maybe you are prepared for whatever your local disaster might be. Is the Government?
Who's next?
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< E-Liberal Home